DeagolModel_F09Q2.xls
Long term recommendation:
STRONG BUY below $181
buy from $181 to $195
neutral from $195 to $201
sell above $223
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3mo ending Mar-2009:
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FY09Q2 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Apple guidance 7.80 0.95
Analysts cons. 7.93 1.08
My estimate 8.45 1.29
My non-GAAP e. 8.90 1.47
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Product Units(M)
------- --------
Mac 2.35
iPhone 3.10
iPod 9.50
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3mo ending Jun-2009:
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FY09Q3 Revenue($B) EPS($)
------ ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 8.28 1.11
My estimate 8.68 1.31
My non-GAAP e. 8.54 1.25
Apple gd (est) 8.10 1.03
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12mo ending Sep-2009:
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FY09 Revenue($B) EPS($)
---- ----------- ------
Analysts cons. 35.25 5.20
My estimate 37.00 5.88
My non-gaap e. 41.50 7.85
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Stock valuation:
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Window 12mo starting EPS(e) PPS(25x)
------ ------------- ------ --------
Trailing Jul-08 5.63 141
Fair value Jul-09 7.24 181
1-year target Apr-10 8.91 223
Analysts mean target 130
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http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/
