DeagolModel_F09Q3.xls

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Final Estimates for Fiscal Q3 2009

http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/

Lots of things going on over the last 3 months. Most significant adjustments are:

- About 1.5M to 1.8M iPhone units shifted forward from Q4 to Q3, due to the launch one week earlier than I was assuming. This only affects non-GAAP estimates.

- MacBook refresh validates my optimistic unit expectations, but ASPs take a hit.

- Higher SW revenue (and about 100 bp higher GM) for next Q1 due to Snow Leopard launch in September.

- Not making any assumptions about a tablet product... yet.

- AAPL is finally trading at or above 25x trailing EPS. I'm still hoping for this same multiple but on a forward-looking basis by the end of this year as the level below which I would consider AAPL a strong buy (DYOD, YMMV, etc.)

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I apologize for not being able to do a preliminary update last month, mostly due to lack of user-volunteered data, but also because so much was going on that it seemed useless trying to pin down all the changing variables in the middle of June. I was a bit surprised at receiving just a couple of orders during May (thanks go to SagHarbor and Marc), and I was able to "steal" the quarter-closing order from fellow modeler Caligula (thanks Steve!), all of these for the US Online Store. I didn't get any data for the EU store, so I decided to estimate a similar trend as the US store (flat) instead of killing that whole effort. Hopefully there will be more volunteers in the future.

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Good luck next week!

-d

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3mo ending Jun-2009:

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FY09Q3 Revenue($B) EPS($)

------ ----------- ------

Apple guidance 7.80 0.98

Analysts cons. 8.16 1.16

My estimate 8.35 1.27

My non-GAAP e. 9.62 1.80

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Product Units(M)

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Mac 2.45

iPhone 5.00

iPod 10.80

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3mo ending Sep-2009:

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FY09Q4 Revenue($B) EPS($)

------ ----------- ------

Analysts cons. 9.02 1.29

My estimate 9.11 1.40

My non-GAAP e. 10.63 2.04

Apple gd (est) 8.60 1.05

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12mo ending Sep-2010:

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FY10 Revenue($B) EPS($)

---- ----------- ------

Analysts cons. 41.53 6.40

My estimate 44.74 7.80

My non-gaap e. 47.51 8.95

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Stock valuation:

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Window 12mo starting EPS(e) PPS(25x)

------ ------------- ------ --------

Trailing Oct-08 5.79 145

Fair value Oct-09 7.80 195

1-year target Jul-10 9.43 236

Analysts mean target 159