DeagolModel_F09Q4.xlsx

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3mo ending Sep-2009:

F4Q09 Revenue($B) EPS($) GM%

----- ----------- ------ -----

Apple guidance 8.80 1.21 34.0%

Analysts cons. 9.19 1.42 ?

My estimate 9.32 1.53 36.2%

My non-GAAP e. 11.28 2.52 41.2%

Product Units(M)

------- --------

Mac 2.85

iPhone 7.30

iPod 10.30

3mo ending Dec-2009 Revenue($B) EPS($)

. ------------- ------------

F1Q10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------

Analysts consensus 11.44 ? 1.91 ?

Deagol estimates 12.07 13.71 2.20 3.02

Apple guidance (e) 11.45 13.00 1.75 2.60

12mo ending Sep-2010 Revenue($B) EPS($)

. ------------- ------------

FY10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------

Analysts consensus 42.44 ? 7.05 ?

Deagol's estimates 45.80 49.67 8.04 9.97

Stock valuation: EPS(e) PPS(25x)

. ------------ ------------

Window 12mo starting GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------ ------------- ---- ------ ---- ------

Trailing Jan-09 6.41 9.52 160 238

Fair value Jan-10 8.54 10.19 214 255

1-year target Oct-10 9.83 11.17 246 279

Revenue breakdown:

Mac 3581 ( 2.85M @ $1255)

iPhone 2265 ( 7.30M @ $ 545)

iPod 1502 (10.30M @ $ 146)

Music 961

Software 676

Periph 338

-------- ----

Total 9322

Income statement:

Revenue 9322

COGS 5948

GM 3375

OpEx 1440

OpInc 1935

OI&E 33

Pre-tax 1968

Tax 573

NetInc 1395

Shrs. 913

EPS 1.53

Ratios:

GM% 36.2%

OpInc% 20.8%

Tax% 29.1%

NetInc% 15.0%