DeagolModel_F10Q1.xlsx
3mo ending Dec-2009 Revenue($B) EPS($)
. ------------- ------------
F1Q10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP
------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------
Apple guidance 11.45 N/A 1.74 N/A
Analysts cons. 12.01 ? 2.05 ?
My estimates 12.47 15.02 2.35 3.74
3mo ending Mar-2010 Revenue($B) EPS($)
. ------------- ------------
F2Q10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP
------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------
Analysts consensus 10.33 ? 1.75 ?
Deagol estimates 10.69 11.34 1.94 2.29
Apple guidance (e) 10.15 10.90 1.51 1.85
12mo ending Sep-2010 Revenue($B) EPS($)
. ------------- ------------
FY10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP
------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------
Analysts consensus 45.05 ? 7.85 ?
Deagol estimates 46.67 51.50 8.63 11.18
Stock valuation: EPS(e) PPS(25x)
. ------------ ------------
Window 12mo starting GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP
------ ------------- ---- ------ ---- ------
Trailing Apr-09 7.46 11.29 187 282
Fair value Apr-10 9.70 11.66 243 292
1-year target Jan-11 11.53 13.42 288 335
Revenue breakdown:
Mac 4,312 ( 3.184M @ $1,354)
iPhone 2,815 ( 8.650M @ $ 590)
iPod 3,170 (20.500M @ $ 155)
Music 1,177
Software 604
Periph 392
-------- ------
Total 12,469
Income statement:
Revenue 12,469
COGS 7,893
GM 4,576
OpEx 1,625
OpInc 2,951
OI&E 55
Pre-tax 3,006
Tax 857
NetInc 2,149
Shrs. 915
EPS 2.35
Ratios:
GM% 36.7%
OpInc% 23.7%
Tax% 28.5%
NetInc% 17.2%




