DeagolModel_F10Q1.xlsx

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Deagol Model - Fiscal 1Q 2010 Final
Description

3mo ending Dec-2009 Revenue($B) EPS($)

. ------------- ------------

F1Q10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------

Apple guidance 11.45 N/A 1.74 N/A

Analysts cons. 12.01 ? 2.05 ?

My estimates 12.47 15.02 2.35 3.74

3mo ending Mar-2010 Revenue($B) EPS($)

. ------------- ------------

F2Q10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------

Analysts consensus 10.33 ? 1.75 ?

Deagol estimates 10.69 11.34 1.94 2.29

Apple guidance (e) 10.15 10.90 1.51 1.85

12mo ending Sep-2010 Revenue($B) EPS($)

. ------------- ------------

FY10 GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------------------ ----- ------ ---- ------

Analysts consensus 45.05 ? 7.85 ?

Deagol estimates 46.67 51.50 8.63 11.18

Stock valuation: EPS(e) PPS(25x)

. ------------ ------------

Window 12mo starting GAAP n-GAAP GAAP n-GAAP

------ ------------- ---- ------ ---- ------

Trailing Apr-09 7.46 11.29 187 282

Fair value Apr-10 9.70 11.66 243 292

1-year target Jan-11 11.53 13.42 288 335

Revenue breakdown:

Mac 4,312 ( 3.184M @ $1,354)

iPhone 2,815 ( 8.650M @ $ 590)

iPod 3,170 (20.500M @ $ 155)

Music 1,177

Software 604

Periph 392

-------- ------

Total 12,469

Income statement:

Revenue 12,469

COGS 7,893

GM 4,576

OpEx 1,625

OpInc 2,951

OI&E 55

Pre-tax 3,006

Tax 857

NetInc 2,149

Shrs. 915

EPS 2.35

Ratios:

GM% 36.7%

OpInc% 23.7%

Tax% 28.5%

NetInc% 17.2%

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